NCovid -19 ảnh hưởng đến nền kinh tế như thế nào?


Vi rút Corona (Tên chính thức là COVID-19) – Tên Việt Nam là “Cô Vi” lây lan nhanh và phức tạp, không chỉ là nỗi sợ hãi về sức khỏe, mà còn là rủi ro đối với hoạt động kinh tế toàn cầu nói chung và Trung Quốc nói riêng. Dịch bệnh tiếp tục tác động đến các quốc gia, với tác động đến nền kinh tế vĩ mô đang tăng lên mỗi ngày.

Về khía cạnh ảnh hưởng sức khỏe và tính mạng con người, không gì có thể đo đếm được.

Trong khuôn khổ bài viết này mình lược sơ một cái nhìn tổng quan về các vấn đề chính từ góc độ kinh tế và kinh doanh.

A. Góc độ vĩ mô:


Cho đến hiện nay, không chỉ Trung Quốc, các “Con rồng Châu Á” như Nhật Bản, Hàn Quốc cũng đang ở tình trạng báo động khi số lượng người được phát hiện nhiễm bệnh đã tăng đột biến. 

Tình hình nhiễm bệnh Corona – 1/3/2020

Ở đây, mình chỉ xoay quanh tác động của Trung Quốc - nền kinh tế thứ 2 toàn cầu. Thời điểm hiện nay Trung Quốc chiếm đến 16% GDP của toàn thế giới, gấp 4 lần so với đại dịch SARS vào năm 2003 (4%). Do đó sự ảnh hưởng đến kinh tế toàn cầu nói chung và Châu Á nói riêng là đáng kể hơn rất nhiều.

The global spillovers will come via four main channels

China
Import
Chinese
Travel
Global
Supply Chain
Global
Financial Market

Bốn “con đường lây nhiễm corona” đối với kinh tế toàn cầu:


1. Trung Quốc sẽ giảm nhập khẩu:


Báo cáo dự báo gần đây của Oxford Economics đã giảm sản lượng nhập khẩu từ Trung Quốc 9% cho Quý 1 và 5% cho Quý 2 so với dự báo lập vào tháng 1/2020

Tổng sản lượng xuất-nhập khẩu của Trung Quốc so với thế giới


2. Người Trung Quốc sẽ ít đi du lịch:

Trong năm 2019, người Trung Quốc thực hiện hơn 150 triệu chuyến đi du lịch ở nước ngoài. Một thống kê vào năm 2018 cho thấy, khách du lịch Trung Quốc đã “tiêu xài” khoảng 130 tỷ đô ở nước ngoài. (khoảng ½ GDP của Việt Nam). Tết 2020, số chuyến du lịch nước ngoài đã giảm 73% so với Tết năm ngoái.


3. Sự gián đoạn của chuỗi cung ứng:


Việc xuất khẩu hàng hóa trung gian (intermediate goods/semi-finished goods, dân kế toán như mình hiểu nôm na là “bán thành phẩm”) của Trung Quốc, tuy không chiếm tỷ trọng lớn toàn cầu, nhưng lại là trọng yếu đối với Việt Nam, Nhật Bản và Hàn Quốc. Kim ngạch xuất khẩu Trung Quốc vào các nước châu Á chiếm trên 20% tổng giá trị xuất khẩu toàn cầu của Trung Quốc. Việt Nam đầu bảng với hơn 40% tỷ trọng nhập khẩu “Bán thành phẩm” là từ Trung Quốc. Sau đó là Nhật Bản, Hàn Quốc, Philippines.

Tỷ trọng nhập khẩu "bán thành phẩm" từ Trung Quốc..

4. Kỳ vọng vào thị trường tài chính và triển vọng kinh doanh giảm sút:


Giai đoạn trước tết thường là giai đoạn ảm đạm của thị trường tài chính và sẽ phục hồi sau tết. Tuy nhiên, với sự ảnh hưởng của Cô Vy, nhà đầu tư trở nên e dè, không dám “xuống tiền”. Thị trường tài chính và triển vọng kinh doanh phản ánh sự kỳ vọng trong tương lai, khi mà “ngày mai” không biết sống hay chết thì còn nghĩ gì đến tương lai nữa.

“Ngôi sao sáng” Vũ Hán

Trước giờ mình chỉ nghe về Trung Quốc chủ yếu là Bắc Kinh, Thượng Hải, Quảng Châu, hay chơi game võ lâm thì biết Thành Đô, Tô Châu, Thiên Tân, Trùng Khánh…nhờ “Cô Vi” mà mình biết thêm Vũ Hán.


Vũ Hán là một thành phố thuộc tỉnh Hồ Bắc, diện tích 8,500 km2 (gấp 4 lần HCM) với dân số 11 triệu người (bằng HCM – nên a Đen Vâu ảnh bảo dân HCM sống xếp chồng lên nhau).


Vũ Hán nằm vị trí 9 trong top 16 thành phố có GPD lớn nhất Trung Quốc, GDP của Vũ Hán năm 2018 là 244 tỷ đô (gấp 5 lần HCM).

Vũ Hán là thành phố trực thuộc tỉnh duy nhất trong 6 tỉnh miền trung của Trung Quốc (Hồ Nam, Hồ Bắc, An Huy, Giang Tây, Hà Nam, Sơn Tây). Vũ Hán có ba ga đường sắt lớn, có cảng biển và sân bay là trung tâm giao thông lớn nhất trong khu vực. Vũ Hán cũng là điểm dừng chân quan trọng cho du thuyền trên con sông Dương Tử huyền thoại. (Sông Dương Tử là con sông dài thứ 3 thế giới).


Một số quốc gia có lãnh sự quán trong thành phố Vũ Hán, bao gồm cả Mỹ và Pháp - cả hai đều đang làm việc để sơ tán công dân của họ khỏi Vũ Hán do virus. Khoảng 160 công ty Nhật Bản, bao gồm các công ty lớn trong ngành công nghiệp ô tô và điện tử, có văn phòng đặt tại Vũ Hán (Theo Phòng Thương mại Nhật Bản tại Vũ Hán.)

B. Ảnh hưởng một số nghành cụ thể:


1. Nghành công nghiệp sản xuất ô tô:


Vũ Hán được dự báo sẽ sản xuất ~ 1,3 triệu xe vào năm 2020, chiếm ~ 6,5% tổng sản lượng của Trung Quốc; trong khi Thượng Hải được dự báo sẽ sản xuất ~ 1,6 triệu xe vào năm 2020. Tuy nhiên, nghành sản xuất của Trung Quốc chậm lại trong tháng 1 và tháng 2 do các ngày nghỉ Tết Nguyên đán kéo dài (do Corona) và tình hình đóng cửa có thể kéo dài đến hết tháng 3.


Các nhà cung cấp ô tô lớn như Adient, BorgWarner, Lear, Garett Motion, Bosch, Magna và Aptiv có hoạt động sản xuất tại các khu vực bị ảnh hưởng (20% doanh thu đến từ thị trường Trung Quốc). Do kết quả của sự gián đoạn chuỗi cung ứng toàn cầu này, thời gian ngừng sản xuất xe sẽ gia tăng do thiếu hụt các bộ phận quan trọng đặc biệt là nội thất, đèn, hệ thống điện và phanh.


Honda là kẻ khổng lồ trong nghành sản xuất ô tô tại Vũ Hán, với 3 nhà máy lắp ráp. Tổng sản lưởng sản xuất của Honda tại Vũ Hán của Hon Da chiếm 41% của toàn Trung Quốc và chiếm 12% toàn cầu. Trong khi đó số liệu của General Motors lần lượt là 21% và 10%.

Toàn cảnh thị trường sản xuất thiết bị linh kiện ô tô tại Vũ Hán


Hiệp hội xe khách Trung Quốc dự kiến doanh số sẽ giảm từ 25% đến 30% trong giai đoạn từ tháng 1 đến tháng 2 và doanh số năm 2020 có thể giảm khoảng 5%.


Toyota đã đưa ra cảnh báo bán hàng do virus tiếp tục lây lan.

Volvo đã quyết định không đặt mục tiêu bán hàng cho các đại lý vào tháng 2 năm 2020.


2. Vận chuyển (trừ hàng không)


Các cảng lớn của Trung Quốc đang hoạt động thấp hơn 20% -50% so với công suất bình thường và hơn một phần ba số cảng ở Trung Quốc đang trữ lượng hàng tồn tại cảng lên đến hơn 90% sức chứa.


Tất cả mọi thứ từ ô tô và máy móc đến các mặt hàng may mặc và các mặt hàng tiêu dùng khác phần lớn đều được vận chuyển bằng thuyền, và sự gián đoạn trong ngành cảng biển có thể gây ảnh hưởng dây chuyền ra ngoài Trung Quốc.


Nằm ở vị trí chiến lược bên bờ sông Dương Tử, Vũ Hán là cảng sông nội địa lớn nhất Trung Quốc trên sông Dương Tử nối liền Thượng Hải với các khu vực nội địa khác ở Trung Quốc.


3. Hóa chất:


Trung Quốc chiếm 37% nhu cầu các sản phẩm hóa dầu toàn cầu và nhập khẩu hơn 60 triệu tấn/ năm hóa chất cơ bản. Hơn nữa, quốc gia này cung cấp hơn 40% công suất toàn cầu của các sản phẩm hóa dầu chính như sợi polyester (76%), MTBE (54%) và PVC (53%).


Sản lượng sản phẩm hóa chất của Trung Quốc so với Thế giới


Các nhà sản xuất hóa chất ở Trung Quốc đã cắt giảm sản lượng do các vấn đề kho vận, vấn đề nguồn nhân lực và kỳ vọng tiêu thụ yếu hơn trong những tháng tới (Hồ Bắc đóng góp tới 2-3% tổng sản lượng hóa dầu của Trung Quốc).


Hóa dầu Shenchi, Hóa dầu Yuhuang, Hóa dầu Binyang và Hóa dầu Shanneng là bốn nhà máy lọc dầu có công suất kết hợp 10,1 triệu tấn/ năm đã ngừng hoạt động để bảo trì.


Hóa dầu Hengli cũng đã bắt đầu cắt giảm tỷ lệ chạy xuống khoảng 90% trong tuần thứ hai của tháng hai.


Một vài nhà máy khử nước propan ở Trung Quốc đã giảm tỷ lệ vận hành xuống 50-70% công suất.


Các nhà máy clo-kiềm của Trung Quốc đã giảm công suất hoạt động từ 80% xuống 65% do nhu cầu giảm và sự khó khăn trong việc vận chuyển sản phẩm.


4. Hàng không:


Nghành hàng không là một trong những nghành chịu ảnh hưởng lớn do dịch bệnh, tuy nhiên là nghành phục hồi khá nhanh (sau 6 tháng).


Lịch sử các đại dịch trong quá khứ và ảnh hưởng lên nghành hàng không


Ngành vận tải hàng không Trung Quốc đã tạm dừng khoảng 70% hoạt động, hủy 11.642 chuyến bay vào ngày 5/2.


Ít nhất 73 hãng hàng không đã hủy các chuyến bay đến Trung Quốc trong bối cảnh lo ngại về corona. Các hãng vận tải hành khách Mỹ bay đến Trung Quốc hiện đã hủy các chuyến bay vào cuối tháng Tư. Các công ty vận chuyển cho biết một phần lý do là nhu cầu giảm mạnh.


Việc đình chỉ các chuyến bay chở khách đã dẫn đến việc giảm công suất hàng hóa vận chuyển, dẫn đến sự biến động giá cả đối với vận tải hàng không theo hướng bất lợi cho các doanh nghiệp cần phải vận chuyển hàng bằng đường hàng không.


Cathay Pacific, một trong các hãng hàng không vận chuyển hành khách và hàng hóa lớn trong khu vực đã quyết định cắt giảm công suất ít nhất 50% cho đến tháng 3.


5. Tiêu dùng và bán lẻ:


Trung Quốc (không phải Mỹ) là thị trường tiêu dùng lớn nhất thế giới các mặt hàng FMCG.

Tỷ trọng tiêu dùng các mặt hàng FMCG của Trung Quốc và Mỹ

(Nguồn: Bernstein, Euromonitor, EY Consumer Knowledge Analysis)

Nhà hàng và khách sạn, các sản phẩm tiêu dùng như mỹ phẩm và các mặt hàng luxury sẽ chịu sự suy giảm mạnh trong khi đó thị trường giao đồ ăn (Food delivery) (giống như grabfood) và On-demand delivery services (như Ahamove ở VN), E-commerce (như tiki, lazada, shoppe ở VN) và nghành game online hưởng lợi từ việc người dân hạn chế ra ngoài.


Một số thống kê thị trường Trung Quốc trong giai đoạn dịch bệnh:


  • Meituan và Ele.me. 2 ông trùm trong nghành giao hàng ( thực hiện 0.4 triệu đơn hàng/ ngày.
  • Dingdong Maicai - platform về food delivery "chứng kiến" số đơn hàng gấp đôi so với bình thường.
  • HKTV - Một sàn thương mại based tại Hồng Kông có số liệu tăng trưởng 65% số lượng đơn hàng tương ứng với gần 4 triệu USD GMV (Gross Merchandised Value)  
  • Nghành hàng tươi sống của JD.com tăng trưởng 215% chỉ trong 10 ngày cuối tháng 2 so với năm 2019.

6. Công nghệ


Các sản phẩm công nghệ như PC, smartphone... sẽ không chịu ảnh hưởng trực tiếp từ hành vi tiêu dùng, thậm chí một số sản phẩm dành cho gamer có xu hướng bán tốt hơn (gear, máy tính cấu hình mạnh, game online...). Tuy nhiên, các nỗ lực của chính phủ Trung Quốc trong việc ngăn chặn dịch bệnh sẽ gây ra khó khăn ở khâu cung ứng thiết bị. Chính sách hạn chế di chuyển, hoặc đóng cửa các thành phố lớn sẽ làm nguồn nhân lực bị hạn chế gây ảnh hưởng trực tiếp vào các công xưởng sản xuất linh kiện điện thoại và máy tínhh, và các công xưởng lắp ráp cũng không phải ngoại lệ. Vũ Hán nói riêng và tỉnh Hồ Bắc nói riêng là công xưởng của các linh kiện quang học, màn hình, các bo mạch, chip nhớ và công nghệ laser.

 

7. Thị trường tài chính và triển vọng kinh doanh toàn cầu:


Cuộc chiến thương mại Mỹ - Trung đã làm cho triển vọng kinh doanh toàn cầu và thị trường tài chính trở nên lao đao trong suốt năm 2019. Cùng với "nỗ lực" bơm tiền giá rẻ của các Quốc gia lớn, bong bóng tín dụng toàn cầu đang phình to hơn bao giờ hết. Tất cả đều kỳ vọng công nghiệp 4.0 và các thành tựu công nghệ mới như AI có thể giúp đột phá năng lực sản xuất toàn cầu và tạo ra lượng thặng dư tư bản lớn để lấp đầy các khoảng tín dụng. Tuy nhiên, việc dịch bệnh kéo dài và diễn biến ngày càng phức tạp, ảnh hưởng lớn đến mọi mặt hoạt động trong đó có các dự án về công nghệ làm cho nhà đầu tư trở nên "e dè". Triển vọng kinh doanh toàn cầu cũng trở nên lung lay.


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